Final Federal Leaders debate comes and goes with promises

A Report of the English Federal Leaders Debate – Election 2021

The federal party leaders met Thursday night on September 9, 2021, for their only English-language debate, a two-hour event that they used to both attack their rivals and make a case for support ahead of the Sept. 20 election.

The debate saw heated exchanges over five key issues: affordability, climate change, pandemic recovery, reconciliation, leadership and accountability.

The opposition leaders criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for calling parliamentary elections during a pandemic.

Trudeau called the vote last month hoping to win a majority of seats in Parliament, but polls indicate his Liberal party could lose power to the Conservatives in the day of the elections.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Party Leader Annamie Paul tried to brand Trudeau as a failed prime minister who has long promised transformative progressive change but has failed to deliver. Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole, who faced comparatively few jabs throughout the matchup, positioned himself as a more moderate choice than his predecessors in a pitch to disaffected Liberal voters.

Trudeau, meanwhile, asked voters to return his party to government to finish the fight against COVID-19, saying his party has released a viable plan for a post-pandemic Canada.

Clean drinking water, treaty rights, systemic racism, unmarked graves, dismantling the Indian Act and responding to the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls were all issues covered as part of the indigenous reconciliation topic of the debate.

In one memorable moment a first-time voter, 18-year-old Marek McLeod of Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., with eagle feather in hand, asked all the leaders why any First Nations person should believe them given the country’s history of cruelty and duplicity.

The leaders also debated the issue of affordability. O'Toole blasted Trudeau over the spike in inflation in recent months — with the value of the dollar dropping and the price of some everyday goods rising thanks in part to government largesse and a strengthening economy.

ANALYSIS OF THE LEADER’S DEBATE WITH MURPHY BROWNE:

The federal party leaders traded barbs between themselves and, at points, with the moderators during Thursday night's leaders' debate — and nearly a third of Canadians watching at home have no idea who won, according to a Vote Compass question of the day.

This civic engagement tool, which is running on CBC News and Radio-Canada throughout the campaign, asked users who they think won based on what they saw, heard and read.

About 32 per cent of participants who watched the debate said they didn't know who came out on top.

Of those who did pick a winner, Conservative Erin O'Toole came first with 21 per cent and Liberal Justin Trudeau came second with 18 per cent.

The lack of a knockout punch in the English debate — one day after the French-language debate also failed to produce a clear winner — is likely to keep the election close in the days leading up to the Sept. 20 vote.

"None of the leaders was able to leverage the debate to win the hearts and minds of their opponents," said Clifton van der Linden, an assistant professor of political science at McMaster University and chief executive officer of Vox Pop Labs, the organization that runs Vote Compass.

According to Vote Compass's results, about 42 per cent said Thursday's debate wouldn't influence their vote, compared to 30 per cent who said it was very likely to inform the way they cast their ballot. Men were more likely than women to say it wouldn't change their mind — 45 per cent, compared to 39 per cent of women.

Those who indicated they intend to vote for the Green Party were most likely to say the debate would factor into their decision.

More than half of those who indicated they plan to support the Bloc Québécois also said the debate wouldn't sway their decision, even after leader Yves-François Blanchet's tense exchange with the moderator over Quebec's Bill 21.

Those who went into the debate having chosen a party were more likely to say their preferred leader won the debate. But not all of the leaders enjoyed strong reviews from their supporters.

Vote Compass results show NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is seen as the most competent and trustworthy leader overall; 39 per cent of people who intend to vote NDP say he won the debate. Another 38 per cent of NDP supporters said they did not know who won.

According to 66 per cent of those who indicated they plan to support the Conservatives, O'Toole won the night. About 52 per cent of Green supporters said Paul won.

About 47 per cent of Liberal supporters said Trudeau won the debate, while another 34 per cent of Liberal supporters said they did not know who won.

Van der Linden said O'Toole's perceived success may be buoyed by the fact that his party has climbed in the polls since the election was called.

"It's often the case that supporter of a party that appears to have momentum in the polls [is] more satisfied with the performance of the party leader they support," he said in an email.

"My suspicion is that Liberal and NDP supporters were hoping that their candidates were going to knock it out of the park and spur a major shift in current polling trends. The results probably reflect their disappointment that this doesn't appear to have happened."

Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Canada exclusively by CBC/Radio-Canada. The findings are based on 2,627 respondents who participated in Vote Compass on Sept. 9.

 

Written by
Fred Alvarado and Murphy Brown

Journalist
FOCUS Media Arts Centre